Methodology

Available College Graduates

Numbers of qualified graduates – bachelor’s degree and higher – for food, agriculture, renewable natural resources and the environment positions in the United States were determined from using preliminary 2017-2018 degrees conferred data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) surveys conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) of the U.S. Department of Education. The NCES data include postsecondary degrees conferred by all accredited public and private non-profit higher education programs in the United States. Graduates are classified by degree level, degree specialization and selected demographic characteristics.

Food, Agriculture, Renewable Natural Resources and the Environment Graduates

From the NCES Classification of Instructional Programs (CIPS) 2010, project investigators and educator consultants to the project selected degree specializations offered by public and private non-profit higher education programs in food, agriculture, renewable natural resources, and the environment.

Project investigators and educator consultants to the project used historical graduate employment information as well as personal observations and experiences to estimate the percentage of qualified graduates by degree specialization who are expected to enter occupations in the food, agriculture, renewable natural resources and the environment employment sectors. Next, the project investigators and educator consultants identified four occupational clusters for the purpose of categorizing graduates with degree specializations into four broad areas of expertise. The clusters are Management and Business; Science and Engineering; Food and Biomaterials Production; and Education, Communication and Governmental Services.

The following adjustments were made to calculate the total number of qualified higher education graduates in food, agriculture, renewable natural resources and the environment.

  • Reduced qualified bachelor’s degree graduates by 2%. Survey data indicate this percentage of graduates does not enter the labor force.
  • Reduced qualified bachelor’s degree graduates by 25%. This proportion was determined to enter graduate and professional schools.
  • Reduced qualified master’s degree graduates by 19% to account for those who enter Doctor of Philosophy or professional degree programs.
  • Included 85% of the Doctor of Philosophy degree recipients as qualified to enter the U.S. labor force. Surveys of earned doctorates conducted by the National Science Foundation indicate that approximately 15% of these graduates return immediately to their foreign country of origin after receiving their degrees.
  • Project investigators assigned percentages of qualified graduates in each selected degree specialization to the four occupational clusters of Management and Business; Science and Engineering; Food and Biomaterials Production; and Education, Communication and Governmental Services.
  • For additional details, click on Projected Annual Average of U.S. College Graduates from Food, Agriculture, Renewable Natural Resources and Environment (FARNRE) Academic Majors during 2020-2025.

Other or Allied Graduates

From the NCES Classification of Instructional Programs (CIPS) 2010, project investigators and educator consultants selected degree specializations offered by public and private non-profit higher education programs in biological sciences, engineering, health sciences, business, communication, etc., that produce graduates expected to compete for employment with higher education graduates in food, agriculture, renewable natural resources and the environment.

Project investigators and educator consultants used historical graduate employment information as well as personal observations and experiences to estimate the percentage of qualified graduates by degree specialization expected to enter occupations in the food, agriculture, renewable natural resources and the environment employment sectors. Next, the project investigators and educator consultants identified four occupational clusters for the purpose of categorizing graduates with degree specializations into four broad areas of expertise. The clusters are Management and Business; Science and Engineering; Food and Biomaterials Production; and Education, Communication and Governmental Services.

The following adjustments were made to calculate the total number of qualified other graduates.

  • Reduced qualified bachelor’s degree graduates by 2%. Survey data indicate that this percentage of graduates do not enter the labor force.
  • Reduced qualified bachelor’s degree graduates by 25%. This proportion was determined to enter graduate and professional schools.
  • Reduced qualified master’s degree graduates by 19% to account for those who enter doctoral or professional degree programs.
  • Included 85% of the doctoral degree recipients as qualified to enter the U.S. labor force. Surveys of earned doctorates conducted by the National Science Foundation indicate that approximately 15% of these graduates return immediately to their foreign country of origin upon receipt of their degrees.
  • Project investigators and educator consultants assigned percentages of qualified graduates in each selected degree specialization to the four occupational clusters of Management and Business; Science and Engineering; Food and Biomaterials Production; and Education, Communication, and Governmental Services.
  • For additional details, click on Projected Annual Average of U.S. College Graduates from Allied Academic Majors during 2020-2025.

Employment Opportunities

Estimated employment opportunities that require college graduates with expertise to enter occupations in the food, agriculture, renewable natural resources and the environment employment sectors are based on data maintained by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). A BLS Employment Projections report issued on September 4, 2019 includes Table 1.2 “Employment by Detailed Occupation, 2019 and projected to 2029.” Projections are made for each occupation in the BLS taxonomy.

Project investigators worked with educator consultants to select occupations that would be expected to require college graduates with expertise to work in the food, agriculture, renewable natural resources and the environment employment sectors.

For each selected occupation, project investigators and educator consultants determined a percentage of the average annual job openings that would require graduates having expertise in food, agriculture, renewable natural resources and the environment academic specialties. Average annual employment opportunities for each selected occupation were determined from these estimates.

Projected annual employment openings for high school and middle school agricultural education teachers were obtained from a 2018 American Association for Agricultural Education report entitled, National Agricultural Education Supply & Demand Study, by Amy R. Smith, Rebecca G. Lawver and Daniel D. Foster.

Project investigators and educator consultants assigned percentages of the annual employment openings in each selected occupation to the four occupational clusters of Management and Business; Science and Engineering; Food and Biomaterials Production; and Education, Communication and Governmental Services.

For additional details, click on Projected Annual Average Employment Opportunities for U.S. College Graduates with Food, Agriculture, Renewable Resources and Environment Expertise during 2020-2025.

Report Series

The report, Employment Opportunities for College Graduates in Food, Agriculture, Renewable Natural Resources, and the Environment, United States, 2020-2025 is the ninth in a series of five-year projections initiated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 1980. While some small refinements have been made to the methodology used in conducting these studies, the methodological structure outlined above was initially determined by Drs. Kyle Jane Coulter and Marge Stanton who conducted the study and authored the 1980 report, Employment Opportunities for College Graduates in the Food and Agricultural Sciences, 1980–85—Agriculture, Natural Resources, Veterinary Medicine.