January 30, 2008
Presidential expert casts vote for Super Tuesday
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - The leading Republican presidential candidate is likely to emerge on Super Tuesday, but the Democrats will still be searching, says a Purdue University presidential expert."One reason is that the Republicans' procedures allow for winner-take-all when it comes to apportioning delegates, whereas the Democrats' rules require proportional allocations of delegates," says Bert Rockman, professor and head of the Department of Political Science.
"Most likely both leading Democratic candidates, Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama, are going to come out of this neck-and-neck. As a result, the states with the later primaries, which have been considered less important primaries in past elections, will have their chance to play a more significant role in the decision-making process."
Feb. 5 is dubbed Super Tuesday because 24 states hold primary elections. These states represent more than half of the party's delegates who will be voting on nominations this summer at their respective party's national conventions. The Democratic decision also is influenced by "super delegates," those who vote for the party's candidate, but do not represent a state's primary or caucus. Rockman says "super delegates" tend to support the established candidate, and in this case that is uncertain, though Clinton appears to be closer to the core Democratic party constituency than Obama.
"The super delegates may be up for grabs, and we could see a lot of old-fashioned arm twisting and bargaining that we have not witnessed for some time," Rockman says.
Unlike the Democratic race, Rockman expects Super Tuesday will help the Republican Party identify a candidate.
Rockman is editor or author of 14 books, including "The George W. Bush Presidency: Appraisals and Prospects," "The Clinton Presidency: First Appraisals," "The Clinton Legacy" and "The Bush Presidency: First Appraisals," as well as "The Oxford Handbook of Political Institutions" and "Presidential Leadership: The Vortex of Power." His book "The Leadership Question" won the Richard E. Neustadt Prize.
Writer: Amy Patterson Neubert, (765) 494-9723, apatterson@purdue.edu
Source: Bert A. Rockman, (765) 494-4162, barockma@purdue.edu
Purdue News Service: (765) 494-2096; purduenews@purdue.edu
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