January 30,  2008

Primaries, caucuses show political parties' vital signs

"The underappreciated feature of our presidential nomination system is the turnout question," says James McCann, a professor of political science. "In many states, people who participate in the primaries and caucuses do not have to be registered with a specific party, so based on who is going to the polls, you can infer some things about the health and popularity of the parties."

Many commentators have remarked on how the presidential contests of 2008 differ from 2004. But the better comparisons are 2000 and 1988, when there was no incumbent president seeking reelection, McCann says. In 2000 the 88,000 Republicans in the Iowa caucus outnumbered the 60,000 Democrats, he says. This year in Iowa, 240,000 Democrats participated in that state compared to 120,000 Republicans.

"There is an increase for each party, but the real action is with the Democrats," McCann says. "This was replicated in New Hampshire, which is a very different political environment. This year there were 44,000 more Democrats than Republicans. In both 2000 and 1988, the Republicans attracted more voters than the Democrats into their primary.

"This activity tells us that there is more vitality and engagement on the Democratic side."

McCann says this also is sparked by the candidates' hands-on approach of greeting voters door-to-door and in local diners. While this approach worked well in smaller states, like Iowa and New Hampshire, it's unlikely to work in larger states like California and New York.

The Republicans will face additional challenges as well, he says.

"I think the Republicans will tell you they are dispirited about politics today and have been for quite some time," he says. "President George Bush has been under the 50 percent approval rating certainly longer than any other modern day president."

McCann also studies the campaign messages regarding immigration issues and outreach to Latinos, as well as presidential candidate concession speeches.

 Writer: Amy Patterson Neubert, (765) 494-9723, apatterson@purdue.edu

Source: James McCann, (765) 494-0738, mcannj@purdue.edu

Purdue News Service: (765) 494-2096; purduenews@purdue.edu

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