November 9, 2004

Prof: Religion distinguishes red states from blue states

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. – The religious composition of states helps to explain why some states went red while others went blue in last week's presidential election, says a Purdue University sociologist who studies religion.

"Many political commentators and strategists overlooked how significant religion would be in this election," says James D. Davidson, a professor of sociology. "Not only did the exit polls show moral values as a primary concern for many voting Americans, but now, looking more closely at the states, it also is easy to see how religious identification played a role in going blue or red."

In 31 states (including the District of Columbia), the majority of voters chose Republican candidate President George W. Bush, while 20 states were claimed by Democrat candidate Sen. John Kerry.

"But those colors also represent different religions," Davidson says.

The red states have the largest populations of Protestants and Mormons. The blue states have larger populations of Catholics, Jews, people with 'other' religions (such as Buddhism, Islam and Hinduism), and people with no religious affiliation.

Of the 13 states where Protestants and Mormons are more than 60 percent of the population, such as Alabama, Georgia, Utah and West Virginia, every one went red. Of the eight states where Catholics, Jews, "others" and "nones" are a clear majority, seven went blue. Among others, these states include Massachusetts, New Jersey and California. The only one that went red was New Mexico.

"In between are states where the religious composition is mixed," Davidson says. Fifty-seven percent of these states, such as Colorado, Louisiana, Texas and Florida, went red. Forty-three percent of these states went blue, including key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Davidson says religious identification affects the way people vote.

According to national exit polls, 59 percent of Protestants voted for the president. Unlike the last two elections, in which Catholics favored Democratic candidates, this year 52 percent of Catholics voted for Bush, compared with only 47 percent for Kerry, Davidson says. As in the past, Jews favored the Democrat, this time by a 74 percent to 25 percent margin. Also, as they have in the past, others and people with no religious affiliation favored the Democratic candidate – 74 percent and 67 percent, respectively.

"In the 2004 election, the leaders of the Republican Party did a good job discerning the religious affiliations and cultural values of their constituents, and they got those constituents out to vote," Davidson says. "Right now, there are a lot of differences in the Democratic Party about how to handle these religious and cultural differences.

"The religious composition of the states will be very much the same in 2008. So, if Democrats are to have a better shot at winning the White House in 2008, they will have to be more forthright in recognizing that religion also will play a role in choosing our next president. If they do not, they do so at their own peril."

CONTACT: Davidson, (765) 494-4688, davidsonj@soc.purdue.edu

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