Purdue News

January 16, 2004

Purdue experts discuss state of the union, primaries and congress

Expert talks about upcoming State of the Union of the address

Think of this year's State of the Union address on Tuesday (1/20) as the start of President George W. Bush's reelection campaign, says a Purdue University expert in presidential rhetoric.

"Most State of the Union addresses are not that dynamic," says Henry Scheele, professor of communication. "But this speech will be seen by many Americans as the president's first major address of the campaign. As the election campaign begins, it's important for the president, in terms of his political future, to deliver an impressive, meaningful and accurate speech."

Last year's address inaccurately reported that African countries were supplying nuclear materials to Iraq. Scheele says Bush will be more cautious in this year's speech.

"I expect him to launch into a positive endorsement of the economy, focusing on the improvements during the last six months," Scheele says. "It will be interesting to see how he handles the job issue, because the economy is not producing the numbers he predicted."

Scheele is available to speak with reporters before and after the State of the Union address.

CONTACT: Scheele, (765) 494-4358, hscheele@sla.purdue.edu

Expert says Congress thinking about voters when it reconvenes

Expect members of Congress to play it safe this year, says a Purdue University congressional expert.

"This is an election year, and election year politics will play a role," says Glenn Parker, Distinguished Professor of Political Science." Americans will see an emphasis on perking up the economy. Expect a big dose of government spending to occur, and don't expect a lot of legislative action because it can make just as many enemies as friends. Look for legislation that will make friends."

Congress reconvenes Jan. 20.

Parker, who is the author of the forthcoming book "Self-Policing in Politics: The Political Economy of Reputational Controls on Politicians," says the Republican-led Congress also is likely to pursue major ventures in foreign affairs to rally voter support behind President Bush.

"I expect some partisan efforts to portray the president as a thoughtful individual who can make important decisions," Parker says. "Overall, I don't expect a lot of fighting since all incumbents have incentives to cooperate to pass legislation that will help them get re-elected."

If Congress has to cut back on social programs to salvage its budget, Parker says it is unlikely to cut large social programs, such as Social Security, that serve older adults because that age group has a high rate of voter turnout.

CONTACT: Parker, (765) 494-4161, parker5@purdue.edu

Expert says frontloading primaries will change this race's game

Watching this year's reshuffled presidential primaries will be a sport in itself, says a Purdue University political science expert.

During this year's presidential run-off, there is more frontloading, meaning more primaries are clustered at the beginning of the race, says James McCann, a political science professor who specializes in American politics.

"Some of the states that in years past have been late in the primary process have, understandably, felt overlooked," he says. "By moving up their primary or caucus dates, these states might play a more decisive role. But such decisions could affect the dynamics of the election."

McCann says there are benefits to a "stretched out" series of smaller contests that eventually lead to the party nomination conventions.

"By frontloading, the Democratic nomination race will likely be over more quickly," he says. "The more you bunch up the primaries and caucuses, the harder it is for underfunded aspiring nominees to be competitive. One benefit of having small states like New Hampshire and Iowa leading off, followed by a lull in the action, is that candidates are able to run 'shoe leather' campaigns – that is, they have more of an opportunity to walk around and meet in small groups with voters. As primary elections and caucuses become more and more clustered together, candidates have no choice but to organize national campaigns, which require far more fund raising and overhead."

The Democratic presidential race's first primary is Jan. 19 in Iowa. The second primary, in New Hampshire, follows on Jan. 27. On Feb. 3, the frontloading begins when primaries will be conducted in five states and caucuses will convene in two states.

CONTACT: McCann, (765) 494-0738, mccannj@purdue.edu