{"id":9936,"date":"2024-10-01T09:39:13","date_gmt":"2024-10-01T13:39:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/?p=9936"},"modified":"2024-10-01T09:46:06","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T13:46:06","slug":"farmer-sentiment-reaches-lowest-levels-since-2016-as-income-expectations-weaken","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/2024\/Q4\/farmer-sentiment-reaches-lowest-levels-since-2016-as-income-expectations-weaken","title":{"rendered":"Farmer sentiment reaches lowest levels since 2016 as income expectations weaken"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. \u2014 In September, the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> recorded its lowest readings since March 2016. Declining income expectations pushed farmer sentiment down as the barometer fell 12 points to 88, and the Index of Future Expectations dropped 14 points to 94. The Index of Current Conditions also fell 7 points to 76, which nearly matched levels seen in April 2020, during the height of COVID-19 concerns for farmers. This month\u2019s survey was conducted from Sept. 9-13, 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

September\u2019s survey revealed that farmers are increasingly worried about commodity prices, input costs, agricultural trade prospects and the potential impact of the upcoming election on their farm operations. When asked to identify their top concerns for the coming year, low commodity prices and high input costs were nearly tied, with 34% of farmers citing input prices and 33% pointing to lower output prices as their primary concerns. Interest rates trailed behind as a top concern for 17% of respondents. Producers\u2019 apprehensions about commodity prices matched up with their lack of confidence in the future of U.S. agricultural exports; only 26% of respondents expect exports to rise over the next five years, the most pessimistic response to this question since it was first introduced in 2019. Additionally, 78% of producers expressed concern that government policy changes following the fall 2024 elections could impact their farms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe continued drop in the barometer reflects deepening concerns among farmers regarding expectations for farm income in 2024 and 2025,\u201d said James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a>. \u201cIt\u2019s notable that producer sentiment dropped back to levels last seen in 2016 when the U.S. farm economy was in the early stages of an economic downturn. In addition to commodity prices and input costs weighing heavily on their operations, producers are also facing considerable uncertainty about what lies ahead for their farms with the possible government policy changes following the upcoming 2024 elections.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Farm Financial Performance Index fell for the third consecutive month, dropping to 68 in September from 72 in August. Farmers\u2019 financial expectations have declined markedly compared to a year ago, as the index was at 86 in September 2023 \u2014 an 18-point difference. While the Farm Capital Investment Index increased by 4 points from August to a reading of 35, it sits just above its all-time low, indicating that many producers believe it is not an opportune time for making large investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index dropped by 10 points to 95. This is the first time since 2020 that the index fell below 100, indicating that more farmers are expecting a decline in farmland values over the next year than those who anticipate an increase. This month\u2019s shift from a positive to a weaker outlook is attributable to a significant decrease in the percentage of producers forecasting rising values and a rise in those who expect values to remain steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The September survey marks the fourth consecutive year that the barometer has included questions regarding cover crop usage among corn and soybean producers. Consistent with prior years\u2019 surveys, more than half of the respondents indicated that they currently plant cover crops on part of their farms, while an additional 1 in 5 farmers reported planting cover crops sometime in the past. Interestingly, farmers who currently use cover crops say they are devoting a larger proportion of their farm\u2019s acreage to cover crops than in the past. In 2021, 41% of cover crop users noted planting them on more than 25% of their farm\u2019s acreage. This figure rose to 50% in 2023, and in this year\u2019s survey, 68% of cover crop users indicated planting cover crops on more than one-fourth of their farms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About CME Group<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As the world\u2019s leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group<\/a> enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2014 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates<\/a>, equity indexes<\/a>, foreign exchange<\/a>, energy<\/a>, agricultural products<\/a> and metals<\/a>. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex<\/a> platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world\u2019s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (\u201cS&P DJI\u201d). \u201cS&P\u00ae\u201d, \u201cS&P 500\u00ae\u201d, \u201cSPY\u00ae\u201d, \u201cSPX\u00ae\u201d, US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones\u00ae, DJIA\u00ae and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About Purdue University<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Purdue University is a public research institution demonstrating excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities and with two colleges in the top four in the United States, Purdue discovers and disseminates knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 105,000 students study at Purdue across modalities and locations, including nearly 50,000 in person on the West Lafayette campus. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue\u2019s main campus has frozen tuition 13 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap \u2014 including its first comprehensive urban campus in Indianapolis, the Mitch Daniels School of Business, Purdue Computes and the One Health initiative \u2014 at https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/president\/strategic-initiatives<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

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\n Source:<\/strong> James Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a>
\u00a0
Media contacts:<\/strong>
Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>
Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443,\u00a0dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a>
\u00a0
Agricultural Communications:<\/strong>\u00a0Maureen Manier,\u00a0mmanier@purdue.edu<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0765-494-8415<\/strong><\/a> <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. \u2014 In September, the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer recorded its lowest readings since March 2016. Declining income expectations pushed farmer sentiment down as the barometer fell 12 points to 88, and the Index of Future<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":9932,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"department":[],"source":[29],"purdue_today_topic":[],"coauthors":[306],"class_list":["post-9936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","source-purdue-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9936"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9938,"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9936\/revisions\/9938"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9932"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9936"},{"taxonomy":"department","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/department?post=9936"},{"taxonomy":"source","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/source?post=9936"},{"taxonomy":"purdue_today_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/purdue_today_topic?post=9936"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/newsroom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=9936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}