February 3, 2004
Grain prices weigh heavily on livestock profitability
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - This year the story for livestock producers might not be so much about the price of their livestock products, as it will be about the cost of livestock feed.
Chris Hurt, a Purdue Cooperative Extension Service agricultural economist, said, "It looks like costs of production, particularly feed costs, are going to go up this year."
Those rising costs will have the most effect on dairy and hog farmers.
"This will be the third year when we've seen all milk prices in the United States range between $12 and $12.50 per hundredweight," he said. "Those are really the lowest prices we've seen on milk since 1980. A complicating factor for dairy producers this year will be even higher feed costs."
Hurt said corn and especially soybean meal prices are much higher than last year because of tight world stocks and lower yields last year. This will continue to squeeze dairy producers, he said.
There may be some good news for the dairy sector. Several factors affecting milk prices have come to light since the last USDA dairy price outlook was released, said Mike Schutz, a Purdue Extension dairy specialist.
"On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, class III dairy futures for 2004 are trading at more than $1 over the five-year average," he said. "Also, stocks of butter and cheese in cold storage are decreasing, and milk supplies appear tighter."
This is happening largely because of a weather-related decrease in production per cow in parts of the U.S. Dairy consumption also appears to be on the rise, he said.
"One of the most encouraging aspects of 2004 is that purchases of dairy products tend to be related to income, and with rising U.S. and world economies we think that will further eat away at these surpluses," Hurt said.
In addition to the tightening supplies, Monsanto recently announced that it will temporarily slow production of Posilac, its bovine somatotropin (BST) hormone. Schutz said it appears that the company will restrict sales to existing customers and that those sales will be around 50 percent of historic rates.
"This could cut the milk supply in the U.S. by 1 percent to 2 percent," Hurt said.
Still, the story for dairy farmers will likely be the high cost of production due to increased feed costs. To that end, Schutz suggests producers increase the forage portion of their rations, or find a higher quality forage to feed. He said producers also have the option of replacing a portion of the soybean meal used in dairy feed with commodity feeds such as corn gluten meal or brewer's grains and grazing young stock and dry cows, to lower soybean meal usage on the farm.
There was more optimism for the hog industry. However, the January crop report showed the cost of production rising perhaps as much as or more than the price of hogs. he said.
Hurt said, "While we're anticipating about a $2 per hundredweight increase in hog prices in 2004, we're seeing costs go up at least by that amount. That says we're going to have a year with moderate losses, maybe $2 to $3 per live hundredweight."
Those losses would likely occur in the first and final quarters of 2004. Prices are expected to average around $40 per hundredweight for the first quarter, rise to the mid $40 range in spring and early summer and fall to the $30s in late fall.
Poultry and beef producers look to be the winners this year in the animal sector according to Hurt. Despite the U.S. Department of Agriculture's bovine spongiform enchephalopathy announcement on Dec. 23, consumer demand is not expected to change much, meaning cattle prices will remain above average.
Hurt said finished cattle prices are expected to average in the high $70 to low $80 per hundredweight range for the first quarter.
"Summer prices are expected to move lower, perhaps pushing back into the lower $70s, but we'll finish the year with a move back into the low to mid $80 range," he said.
Calf prices were near $1 per pound in 2003 but will be lower this year due to lower fed-cattle prices and higher feed costs, Hurt said. He expects calves to average in the very high $80 to low $90 per hundredweight range.
Poultry prices are also expected to rise. Hurt predicts that broilers will go up by 3 percent to 64 cents per pound. Turkey prices are expected to be about 2 percent stronger at 63 cents for wholesale turkeys in eastern U.S. markets. Egg production is expected to be stable with prices reaching 91 cents per dozen, an increase of 3 percent.
Writer: Kay Hagen, (765) 494-6682, firstname.lastname@example.org
Sources: Chris Hurt, (765) 494-4273, email@example.com
Mike Schutz, (765) 494-9478, firstname.lastname@example.org
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