Purdue News

April 21, 2000 Rains have helped, but not ended, drought in state WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. – Rains today and Thursday have alleviated the dryness in northern Indiana, but according to a strict definition of drought, many parts of the state still are experiencing a water shortfall. "Yesterday's rains varied from 1 to 3 inches across Indiana and were the most significant we've had this year," said Ken Scheeringa, acting state climatologist who is based at Purdue University. "This improved the conditions for agriculture, but did not totally relieve our hydrologic drought." Earlier this month, some parts of the state were experiencing as much as a 5-inch deficit in the soil moisture supply. In the northern third of Indiana, soil conditions ranked among the top five driest early April periods on record. "We still have not totally recharged the subsoil, which means we're not out of the woods, yet," Scheeringa said. He said the long-term weather prediction for this summer is for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. "The 90-day outlook is 65 percent accurate at best," he said, "so we're looking at about a 50-50 chance that there could be an agricultural drought this summer." Despite the hydrological conditions and the forecast, Purdue agricultural experts are not calling for farmers to make drought a factor in their planting plans. Extension corn specialist Bob Nielsen and soybean specialist Ellsworth Christmas say it should be business as usual for farmers this spring. They don't think farmers should plan for drought, or switch varieties just to get a quicker-maturing crop, because such varieties will yield less than a conventional variety if the summer weather is normal. "Planning for a growing season that is quite different than normal is a major gamble," said Christmas. He warned against betting on bad weather, because it is like putting all your eggs – or soybeans – in one basket. One move that many farmers have taken this year is to purchase crop insurance provided by private industry with assistance from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. "As much as 40 percent or more of Indiana's acreage is covered by crop insurance this year," said Chris Hurt, Purdue Extension ag economist. "This reflects growing interest in crop insurance and in the news this spring for a potentially dry year." State ag statisticians did study the historical record of spring soil conditions and eventual harvest yields to see if they could predict a crop shortfall. "There is nothing, statistically, to say that dry soils in early spring will lead to lost production at harvest," said Greg Matli, state agricultural statistician. "When we look at conditions on record, there's just no correlation between dry times now and final yield this fall." Purdue has joined with several other state organizations, under the leadership of the State Emergency Management Agency and Office of the Commissioner of Agriculture, to plan efforts in case predictions for a hot, dry summer come true. During the drought of 1988, Purdue offered a toll-free hotline for farmers and daily updates on conditions for the news media. Sources: Ken Scheeringa, (765) 494-8105, kens@purdue.edu Bob Nielsen, (765) 494-4802, rnielsen@purdue.edu Ellsworth Christmas, (765) 494-6373, echristmas@purdue.edu Writer: Steve Cain, (765) 494-8410 Other sources: Chris Hurt, (765) 494-4273 Greg Matli, (765) 494-8371 Purdue News Service: (765) 494-2096; purduenews@purdue.edu To the Purdue News and Photos Page