sealPurdue News
____

November 19, 1999

Holiday shoppers will spend more, expect less service

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. – Retailers who rely on strong holiday sales to make their entire year a success will find the 1999 shopping season to their liking, according to the interim director of Purdue University's Retail Institute.

"Although many retailers in all categories have enjoyed a good year to this point, the real acid test of their strategies will come with the holiday shopping season," said Tom Scott, a 25-year veteran of the retail industry who joined the Purdue staff in 1998. "Consumers are equipped to be better shoppers than at any time in the past, so product availability and price are going to be critical to making the cash registers ring."

Scott's observations and predictions are based on data from the National Retail Federation and the American Express Retail Index on Holiday Shopping for 1999, which indicates that consumers have raised their gift-giving budgets by 15 percent over 1998 levels to an average of $1,500. But Scott says shoppers don't have high expectations of retailers.

"Shoppers have more money to spend, but they will still hold out for sales and they don't expect to find wanted items in stock when they want them and when they are advertised," he said. "They further anticipate finding few, if any, sales and management personnel capable of assisting them. It's a nationwide problem for all retailers due to the low unemployment rate."

Scott said discounters and non-apparel retailers are in a position to do well despite low customer expectations.

"Discounters should have a good season as long as they continue to offer brand-name products in large quantities at prices that traditional retailers seem unable to duplicate," Scott explained. "They also tend to offer longer shopping hours, which is critical to consumers strapped for time."

He added that non-apparel retailers will benefit from the larger shopping budgets as customers seek out high-quality gifts for multiple users such as audio and video equipment, furniture and accessories, and sporting goods.

The hot items on children's wish lists will be Pokemon, Barbie and Star Wars products. Scott said parents also will buy lots of educational toys that encourage literacy, geography and computer skills.

He said he doesn't expect much change in shopping styles by gender. "As usual, women will tend to shop early with a budget and a list, while men will shop late without a list," Scott said. "Men also will do quite a bit of impulse buying focused on a special someone."

Almost 60 percent of all purchases will be made with credit cards, and Scott said more than 50 percent of consumers intend to pay off balances when billed.

Internet shopping could account for as much as 7 percent of all holiday sales this year, up from 4 percent in 1998. But Scott said there are still some obstacles to be overcome if e-commerce is to really make a serious dent in overall sales.

"Consumers are certainly gaining a comfort level with on-line shopping, but there remain questions about the quality of the merchandise: is it really the color seen on the computer screen, and does a size 8 really mean a size 8?" Scott explained. "Payment security for customers is also a concern. In fact it's the main reason why some have not purchased products over the Net."

Source: T.W. Scott, (765) 494-8305, tscott@purdue.edu

Writer: Sharon Bowker, (765) 494-9723, sharon_bowker@purdue.edu

Purdue News Service: (765) 494-2096; purduenews@purdue.edu


* To the Purdue News and Photos Page