Climate Variability and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa

Funding Source: The World Bank TFESSD

Duration: July 1, 2008 – November 3, 2010

Award Amount: $500,000

Other Principal Investigators: Tom Hertel (Purdue University), Navin Ramankutty (McGill University), Channing Arndt (University of Coppenhagen), Will Martin (The World Bank)

Abstract:

The world’s poor are particularly sensitive to changes in the agricultural sector, both because the majority of the poor rely on agriculture for their livelihood, and because they spend a disproportionate share of their income on food. Because the agricultural sector is particularly influenced by weather extremes, changes in extreme climate regimes could have substantial impacts on the poorest populations. In order to develop policies and infrastructure to cope with increased frequency of extreme climate events, we must understand how global warming affects climate volatility (both globally and locally); how changes in climate volatility affect agricultural yields and land use (as well as other economic opportunities, including trade and migration); and finally, how all of these changes affect poverty.

Our effort to bridge climate, land use, and poverty analyses wil help to develop a framework for quantifying the impacts of climate variability and change on the world’s poor on seasonal-to-decadal time-scales. The case studies of Southern and Eastern Africa will catalyze more detailed analyses of that region. In addition, because the framework to be developed through this project will be general and flexible, it will be readily applied to other regions of the world. The project PIs will also be able to share this framework with researchers and decision-makers across the globe, an effort that will be strengthened by the broad use of GTAP and RegCM in the international community.