Noah S. Diffenbaugh

Response of large-scale eastern boundary current forcing in the 21st century

Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L19718, doi:10.1029/2004GL023905, 2005.

Greenhouse-induced changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, particularly the strength, location and variability of the subtropical high pressure centers, could alter the dynamics and ecology of eastern boundary current regions. An unprecedented ensemble of coupled climate model experiments reveals potentially important changes in large-scale eastern boundary current forcing over the next century, including relaxation of the strength and variability of peak-season equatorward wind forcing in all four eastern boundary current regions, and intensification of inter-annual variability of annual maximum sea level pressure in the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres. While these projected changes in large-scale forcing are difficult to distinguish from the multi-model noise, they are of sufficient magnitude to have important dynamical and ecological consequences.