The October 2003 "Bali Concord II" was signed by the ten ASEAN
(Association of South East Asian Nations - Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Loas, Malasia,
Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) which is an ambitious accord for
establishing a plan for the removal of trade barriers and the deepening of regional integration.
Trade among ASEAN nations amounted to $44 Billion in 1993 and grew to $73 Billion in 1998
representing a 13% annual growth rate. If this trend is to also embrace the energy trade
of the region then significant savings are to be made. Demonstration results from the Purdue
long-term electricity trade and capacity expansion model indicates savings in excess of
$11 Billion dollars over the next 10 years assuming free trade of electricity and full
regional cooperation taking place among ASEAN electricity utilities. Regional integration
for planning of new generation and strategic international transmission lines is a significant
strategy for ASEAN's rapidly expanding economies.
The rationale for this proposed modeling study is to provide a joint optimization
of expanding both the transmission and generation expansions across the whole ASEAN region.
The Purdue ASEAN optimization will overcome the shortcomings of earlier studies. A significant
modeling exercise for an expanded transmission grid has taken place for the Greater Mekong
Subregion (GMS -Mekong Power Grid Master Plan).
What about regional interconnection for the whole ASEAN region with the
inclusion of the most cost effective generation expansions? The Purdue University Energy
Modeling Research Groups have undertaken this type of planning for the Midwest U.S. as
well as for the 12 nations of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the 14 nations
of the West African Power Pool (WAPP).
This proposal outlines the benefits and work involved for an ASEAN wide
integrated transmission with generation capacity expansion plan. At the 2003 Bali meeting
the Chinese and SEAN delegations endorsed a three year program under the ASEAN-China Free
Trade Area (ACFTA). To illustrate the benefits of including China in an ASEAN power pooling
structure the proposed model in this document includes the southern Chinese province of
Hunnan.
Several major policy issues confront the ASEAN energy planners. These include
the future plans for new hydropower stations in the region, the use of natural gas from
the regions combined massive reserves of over 256Tcf (167Tcf reserves in the U.S.A., 394Tcf
in Qatar) Modeling of Electricity Capacity Expansions in a Regional Framework of the ASEAN
Nations and Southern China 3 and the restructuring of the state controlled utilities, and
the continuing debate over the environmental impact of the large hydro and thermal units
connected to the grid which, while they allow low cost electricity to the region produce
highly visible pollution consequences.
In 2003 the governor of Thailand's Electricity Generating Authority
(EGAT) stated his country's top three electricity priorities to be (a) privatization,
(b) the Salween Hydropower Station in Myanmar, and (c) the regional power grid (involving
Thailand, Malasia, Myanmar, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Singapore). These three
areas of policy are repeated priorities for most ASEAN member states.
Based on regional data already available and the initial modeling already
conducted it now proposed that an extensive ASIAN and Yunnan regional expansion modeling
study be conducted. This will demonstrate the benefits from greater regional cooperation
and show the most cost effective (cost minimizing) expansion projects for investment.
Proposal
Sparrow, F.T., Yu, Z., Yu, L., Siriariyaporn, V., and Bowen, B.H., "Modeling
of Electricity Capacity Expansions in a Regional Framework of the ASEAN Nations and Yunnan
Province PRC," Draft, September 13, 2004.
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Publications
Yu, Z, Bowen, B.H., Sparrow, F.T., Siriariyaporn, V., and Yu, L., "Integrated Energy Resources
Planning for the ASEAN Countries and Southern China," Oil, Gas & Energy Law Intelligence, Vol.
3, Issue 4, December 2005.
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