Project funded under the USAID co-operative agreement on
Equity and Growth through Economic Research/Trade Regimes
and Growth (EAGER/Trade)

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Introduction --Investigators
Year 1 -- Year 2 -- Year 3
Cape Town Workshop, July 2000
Future Work -- Publications and Presentations

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Click here to Download User Manual

SAPP Data & Files: please contact Brian Bowen (bhbowen@purdue.edu)

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When the prospect of deregulated electric utilities hit Indiana in the 1990s, the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission wanted more than conjecture on possible outcomes. It turned to Purdue's State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG) for analyses of the impact that various scenarios would have on Indiana ratepayers, investors, and other stakeholders.

Created in 1985 and housed within Purdue's Institute for Interdisciplinary Engineering Studies, SUFG has traditionally performed such services as predicting electricity demand statewide and assessing utilities' requests for adding new capacity. "To study a competitive market's impact on the Indiana electric industry, we constructed a new regional price-forecasting model," says Tom Sparrow, a professor of industrial engineering and economics at Purdue.

That model is the basis for one that SUFG is now using to help the 12-nation Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) simulate its own scenarios for electricity trade among members. The investment of fact required to gain useful predictions will hardly be trifling: economics, engineering, geography, drought, politics, even war play into a complex web of interactions that affect the cost and reliability of the region's electricity supply.

Electricity trade is leading the process of regional integration in Southern Africa, driven by the SAPP agreement signed in December 1995. This agreement aims to foster greater co-operation and trust among the 12 national utilities, and so promote increased trade and a mutually beneficial inter-dependence, in contrast with the national self-sufficiency goals which have dominated electricity policy in most countries since independence.

Since signing the SAPP agreement, representatives of each national utility have been meeting frequently to resolve technical issues and consider possible new trading arrangements and transmission infrastructure. Current trading arrangements involve bilateral contracts, but a variety of exchange or auction systems could be introduced to increase the flexibility with which trading occurs. The effects of any such new trading arrangement would be closely related to the quality and capacity of the region's transmission infrastructure. Several new interconnectors are already being built, and additional investments are being considered. There are enormous potential benefits from the combination of new trading arrangements and new transmission infrastructure, but obtaining these benefits would require substantial adjustments in both importing and exporting countries.

The return on SUFG's investment should be substantial. Improving the infrastructure for electricity generation and transmission is prerequisite to improving a country's, or a region's, economic well-being. A 1993 study by the Southern African Development Community and the World Bank estimated that SAPP's optimal use of regional resources and installations could provide savings of US$1.6 billion over 10 years, in comparison with a scenario under which each country pursues its individual power development plans.

"Electricity use and economic development rise together," says Sparrow. And as Peter Robinson, consultant to the power pool, notes, "In the post-apartheid era, there's an enormous imperative to get these economies moving."

Given Southern Africa's enormous hydro power potential in the north and its enormous electricity demand in the south, Zaire, Mozambique, Angola, and Tanzania could provide low-cost power for decades, fueling economic growth within those countries and keeping power prices low in importing countries as well.

In 1996 Sparrow and Will Masters, an associate professor of agricultural economics at Purdue, stepped in with a proposal to apply SUFG's modeling system to the Southern Africa Power Pool. Their idea: to collaborate with professionals at SAPP's national utilities to tailor a computer model for each member country and a comprehensive computer model for the power pool, an organization formed in 1995 to coordinate the operation of power systems to minimize costs.

"To help SAPP predict the effects of new trade agreements among members and new transmission infrastructure, we proposed constructing an engineering model of the region's electricity grid, linked to an economic model of costs and benefits," says Sparrow. "Such a model could then be used to simulate the effects of any change in SAPP's trading or transmission systems and evaluate its impact on each SAPP member. Engineers in each national utility could use the model simultaneously as they negotiate with one another to reach agreement on the most mutually beneficial combination and sequencing of changes."

The Purdue modeling system is a good basis for the proposal because of its comprehensive, integrated characteristics. It incorporates four submodels: one each on demand, supply, finance, and rates. It simulates the interaction of customer demand, system generation, total revenue requirements, and customer rates. By providing varying sets of assumptions, it deals with the uncertainty of such factors as economic growth, construction costs, and fossil fuel prices.

The Purdue proposal was funded, and in 1997 SUFG began collecting data-its "investment of fact"- to incorporate into the models. In August of 1997, eight delegates from SAPP countries, plus Robinson, the consultant, traveled to Purdue for two weeks spent evaluating the models and learning how to manipulate them. SUFG staff members and industrial engineering graduate students provided technical support.

"It's been helpful to look at the national models and see what factors affect electricity generation costs and what factors don't," says Roland Lwiindi of the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation. "I know what to concentrate on.

"Also, we've always traded in electricity with a long-term perspective. These sessions at Purdue have pointed out opportunities for increased potential for short-term trading, especially since drought information can be incorporated."

Indeed, for countries depending on hydro power that is vulnerable to drought, the reliability of the electricity supply is particularly crucial. Zimbabwe's 1992 drought caused electricity shortages in that country that cost it US$235 million in lost export earnings, nearly 10% of its gross domestic product.

Michael Stohl, Purdue's dean of international programs, sees parallels between SAPP's activities now and those of the European Coal and Steel Community'forerunner of the European Union-in the 1950s. "Like steel in 1950, power in the 1990s is crucial for economic development," he says. "The European Coal and Steel Community-consisting of Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg-increased the output of its members by 35 percent, and trade among them in those products increased by 200 percent i between 1952 and 1960."

Such cooperation spills over into other areas, he notes: "The integration of coal and steel markets in Europe promoted the integration of transportation, labor, and social security practices. For SAPP, spillover into such areas as telecommunications is quite possible."

For now, though, Purdue has provided an opportunity for SAPP members to work with the computer models and to consider further how their home countries could benefit from regional interdependence in electricity trade. (One delegate to the Purdue work sessions noted that a new arrangement between his country and another had been broached in the parking lot of West Lafayette's Wal-Mart.)

The Purdue enterprise has also provided a real-life laboratory of sorts for the graduate students who worked with the SAPP delegates during their time on campus and who hustled to modify the models as suggestions for improvement arose.

"At first I questioned the level of cooperation possible [among delegates], but this has been a great opportunity to have open discussions on how to solve problems and how to model things properly," say Kevin Stamber, an industrial engineering graduate student. "The level of cooperation is to be envied."

"This work," says Sparrow, "shows how a state service activity can become a teaching and research program as well."

Members of the Southern Africa Power Pool

Average electricity prices in Southern Africa

Our thanks to:

PURDUE ENGINEERING EXTRAPOLATIONS, Spring 1998

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F.T. Sparrow

• Purdue University
  500 Central Drive
  West Lafayette IN 47907-2022 USA
  Phone: 765/494-7043
  Email: fts@purdue.edu
  

William A. Masters

• Professor of Agricultural Economics
  Purdue University
  Department of Agricultural Economics
  West Lafayette IN 47907 USA
  Phone: 765/494-4235
  Fax: 765/494-9176
  Email: wmasters@purdue.edu
  
  

Brian H. Bowen

• Purdue University
  500 Central Drive
  West Lafayette IN 47907-2022 USA
  Phone: 765/494-1873
  Email: bhbowen@purdue.edu

Zuwei Yu

• Analyst, State Utility Forecasting Group
  Purdue University
  500 Central Drive
  West Lafayette IN 47907-2022 USA
  Phone: 765/494-4224
  Email: zyu@purdue.edu

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• Project Proposal
  Purdue 1997 Workshop Report
  Final Report

• Project Proposal
  Interim Progress Report
  Final Report
  AIRD Summary for Year 2
  

• Project Proposal
  Interim Progress Report
  

The first edition of this manual was written in response to requests from delegates at the July 1998 modeling workshop in Cape Town, South Africa. This fifth edition incorporates the many changes in the model and the data that support it, which have taken place since the last edition was completed in February 2000. Further editions will be forthcoming as the model is changed in response to user requests. This manual has two objectives: (a) a full description of all the equations in the model, and the logic behind each, for the more technically oriented model users, who may wish to understand the detailed workings of the model, and, if necessary, alter the source code (Chapters 2 though 5); (b) a full description of how to use the model utilizing the Windows interface for those less interested in model detail, and more interested in how model results change with changes in the economic and technical assumptions (Chapters 6 and 7). The model is the result of more than two years of joint research between the member utilities of SAPP and Purdue researchers. The utilities that have taken part in this modeling work include:

• BPC Botswana Power Corporation
• EDM Electricidade de Mocambique
• ENE Empresa Nacional de Electricidade (Angola)
• Escom Electricity Supply Commission of Malawi
• Eskom South Africa parastatal power utility (not an acronym)
• LEC Lesotho Electricity Corporation
• NamPower Namibia parastatal power utility
• SEB Swaziland Electricity Board
• SNEL Societe Nationale d'Electricite (DRC)
• Tanesco Tanzania Electric Supply Company
• Zesa Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority
• Zesco Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation

The LT model is designed as a mixed integer mathematical program (MIP). It can be run in a MIP mode or a linear programming mode (LP). The model, which uses GAMS and CPLEX software, minimizes the total costs (capital, fuel, operational and maintenance, and unserved energy) of the operation and capacity expansion of SAPP's generation and transmission system over a planning horizon, which can be specified by the user; typical planning horizons are 10 to 20 years, but longer or shorter periods can be specified. The LT model has several sets of decision variables, each aimed at the answers to the usual questions utility planners confront when designing interconnected utility systems;

In the short run:

(a) Should a utility operate its own units to meet demand, or is it cheaper to import power from other utilities? If a utility operates its own units, how should they be dispatched against varying hourly demand?

(b) Should a utility maintain its own reserve Megawatt capacity, or is it cheaper to meet its reserve requirements by purchasing capacity from neighboring utilities?

(c) How shall the limited daily MWh capacity of pump storage and hydro units be allocated over the daily, weekly, and seasonal demand cycle?

(d) What provision if any, should be made for utility self-sufficiency in the meeting of demands? In the provision of reserve capacity for reliability purposes?

In the long run:

(a) Should a utility construct its own units to meet growing demand, or share in the construction costs of other utility construction projects?

(b) What transmission projects should be funded to allow access to other utility projects?

(c) What mix of new generation units (thermal, hydro, pump storage) should be chosen?

(d) What is the impact on SAPP cost of forcing a project into the solution in a given year? Of requiring that it enter the solution at or before a given year? Of preventing it form entering before a given year?

(e) To what extent should self-sufficiency be a factor in the choice of constructing one's own units versus sharing in the cost of construction of other utility units?

More generally, how should the gains from trade be shared among those utilities who decide to buy either capacity or energy? What is the impact of various wheeling arrangements on the make or buy decision?

To answer these and other questions the model chooses the optimal values of 600 integer variables and 500,000 continuous variables, subject to 20,000 constraints.

The objective of the LT model is to minimize the present value of operating costs, unserved energy and unserved reserves, plus the costs of generation and transmission capacity expansion in the SADC region over a user specified time horizon:

(a) If SAPP were to choose the operation/expansion plan which minimizes total SAPP costs.

(b) If each country optimizes separately, subject to a user specified maximum fraction of domestic peak demand to be met by imported reserves.

The following chapters and appendices of the SAPP User Manual are available as downloadable files in PDF format.

• CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION TO THE SAPP LONG TERM MODEL (pages 1-40)
  
  CHAPTER 2 - LOAD BALANCE (pages 41-51)
  
  CHAPTER 3 - CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS (pages 52-80)
  
  CHAPTER 4 - RELIABILITY CONSTRAINTS (pages 81-87)
  
  CHAPTER 5 - OBJECTIVE FUNCTION (pages 88-96)
  
  CHAPTER 6 - TECHNICAL OPERATING INSTRUCTIONS (pages 97-126)
  
  CHAPTER 7 - POWER POOL WINDOWS INTERFACE (pages 127-145)
  
  
  APPENDICES (data)
  
  
• • Partial data is available by contacting:
    
    Dr. Brian H. Bowen
    Purdue University
    500 Central Drive
    West Lafayette IN 47907-1209
    
    Phone: 765/494-1873
    Email: bhbowen@purdue.edu
    
  
  

• CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION TO THE SAPP LONG TERM MODEL (pages 1-40)
  
  CHAPTER 2 - LOAD BALANCE (pages 41-51)
  
  CHAPTER 3 - CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS (pages 52-80)
  
  CHAPTER 4 - RELIABILITY CONSTRAINTS (pages 81-87)
  
  CHAPTER 5 - OBJECTIVE FUNCTION (pages 88-96)
  
  NOTE: CHAPTERS 6 AND 7 DID NOT CHANGE FROM THE FIFTH EDITION; files here are the same as from the 5th Edition.
  
  CHAPTER 6 - TECHNICAL OPERATING INSTRUCTIONS (pages 97-126)
  
  CHAPTER 7 - POWER POOL WINDOWS INTERFACE (pages 127-145)
  
  
  APPENDICES (data)
  
• • 
    Partial data is available by contacting:
    
    Dr. Brian H. Bowen
    Purdue University
    500 Central Drive
    West Lafayette IN 47907-1209
    
    Phone: 765/494-1873
    Email: bhbowen@purdue.edu
    

• CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION TO THE LONG-TERM MODEL (pages 1-43)
  
  CHAPTER 2 - LOAD BALANCE (pages 44-56)
  
  CHAPTER 3 - CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS (pages 57-92)
  
  CHAPTER 4 - RELIABILITY CONSTRAINTS (pages 93-100)
  
  CHAPTER 5 - OBJECTIVE FUNCTION (pages 101-111)
  
  CHAPTER 6 - TECHNICAL OPERATING INSTRUCTIONS (pages 112-144)
  
  CHAPTER 7 - THE POWER POOL WINDOWS INTERFACE (pages 145-160)
  
  
  APPENDICES (cover sheets only; see below for more information regarding the data in the Appendices)
  
  
• • Partial data from the Appendices is available by contacting:
    
    Dr. Brian H. Bowen
    Purdue University
    500 Central Drive
    West Lafayette IN 47907-1209
    
    Phone: 765/494-1873
    Email: bhbowen@purdue.edu
    

The activity outlined in this document, proposes a phased approach to assist West Africa in the development of electricity expansion planning tools and in identifying expansion project priorities necessary to improve reliability and indicate how to more efficiently produce and trade electricity. This activity will build on the proposer group's previous collaboration with the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). The first phase of the proposed activity involves a detailed identification of the issues, actors and institutions that might be built on to develop a strengthened regional electricity infrastructure and market. This phase will produce a report around which comprehensive electricity trade protocols might be constructed. It will also be a beginning of the consensus building process among the actors which is a pre-condition for any cross-national project such as this. Based on this analysis, it will provide a more detailed design for the second phase of this activity and clarify the collaboration between these efforts and parallel efforts that may be funded by other donors (specifically, the World Bank is also seeking to support institutional development in order to most economically improve electricity supplies in West Africa).

The second phase will involve research to develop and equip each utility in the region with a common analytical model of the region's electricity grid. This tool will serve several purposes. First, it will fill a highly valuable informational need. Within this second phase, the model will provide initial estimates of the savings to countries in the region that might be had from greater integration of their power grids. These savings are likely to come, first, from reductions in the costs of maintaining the reliability of each country's own utilities, and secondly in sourcing less costly electricity through trade to meet growing demand. This information will serve both to make the case for further cooperation, and to provide data to planners in respective countries, as well as to donor and private investors as to how to immediately improve the efficiency of investments in the electricity sector in the region.

Second, the activity of undertaking the modeling research will serve a capacity building role. It will involve intensive collaboration with technical and management personnel from participating utilities to construct the model. This process will entail training these personnel to manipulate, modify and interpret the model. In so doing they will also gain a detailed appreciation for the operational constraints involved in the growth of electricity markets as well as the potential benefits to be had from cooperative investments in electricity generation and from spot trade of electricity. Participants in the activity will also become exposed to the regulatory policy issues that must accompany increased and flexible electricity trading transactions.

Third, the activity will compliment the first steps being taken by regional governments towards building the institution of a power pool. This will occur, first, in so far as it will bring together technicians and managers of participating utilities to work collaboratively on common issues. These actors must provide the impetus and leadership for the actual operation of a power pool for it to become a success. Moreover, the analysis will result in a common set of data and initial grid configurations that can serve as the basis for identification and ironing our of issues that the power pool must address. Finally, part of the design of the second phase will involve dovetailing the proposed analytical research with other initiatives to develop the institutional framework for trade and investment in the region's energy sector. Notably, these include, first, a USAID sponsored effort to the development of a framework for regional trade in natural gas. Secondly, the regional governments and their energy ministers as well as the World Bank are planning to sponsor the institutional development of a West African Power Pool (WAPP), including direct support to developing the legal and regulatory basis for the power pool.

Successfully executed, these proposed activities may be expected to result in a broad range of economic benefits to the region, including higher levels of electricity trade and investment, lower costs and greater reliability of electricity supply, and higher levels of employment and output in electricity-using sectors. These claims are made based upon past experience of the Purdue team. The present proposal builds on a similar activity conducted over the past two years with the 12 national utilities in the SAPP. In Southern Africa, Purdue and African researchers have worked extensively with utility staff and policy-makers to construct models of each country's electricity generation and transmission system, linking them together in a regional model to simulate the costs and benefits of alternative trading arrangements and capacity expansion plans. These SAPP-Purdue models have shown how greater trade can generate operating-cost savings of $80 million per year, with coordinated capacity expansion saving $700 million over the next twenty years. The Southern African utilities have clearly recognized the value of the analytical tools developed with Purdue. In February 1999, the SAPP officially established the model constructed in collaboration with Purdue as their principal instrument for evaluating policy changes and infrastructure investment.

West Africa currently has substantially less electricity trade and inter-utility collaboration than Southern Africa. But with less existing trade and collaboration there are likely to be even greater gains to these activities than those found in the SAPP region.

Shortages of electricity are a severe constraint on economic growth and poverty alleviation in West Africa. The lack of electricity is often exacerbated by shortages of imported fuel, wood/charcoal and other forms of energy. The high cost and unreliability of energy supplies is a handicap for industrial development and employment generation, and also for poverty alleviation and public health.

To make energy more available, the region's hydropower and thermal power stations as well as international transmission lines are in great need of refurbishment. West African electricity suppliers are currently negotiating for a wide range of funding and trading arrangements to support these investments.

The analytical agenda of this proposal consists of using new computer simulation techniques to bring together a variety of energy analysts and policymakers, assemble their knowledge of each country's electricity grid, and return detailed simulations of new trading arrangements and infrastructure investments. The result is a powerful new approach to coordination among utilities, facilitating policy change by providing a basis for realistic dialogue about the consequences of each option.

New computer software developed by the State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG) at Purdue University provides the level of technical and economic detail needed to capture the unique features of electricity generation and trading systems. The software builds on work to guide deregulation and new investment by electricity utilities in the Midwest region of the United States. Since 1997, SUFG has also worked with the managers and engineers of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) to facilitate increased trade and coordinated investment in that region, with funding from USAID's project on Equity and Growth through Economic Research (EAGER).

Southern Africa is the first region outside of Europe and North America to arrange a power pool for coordinated trading and investment in utility expansion. West African states have similar needs and interests. Coordination requires development of the capacity for forecasting and simulation, and SUFG's work in the United States and in Southern Africa has led to powerful new analytical tools that can function on a high-speed personal computer platform. They are designed so as to allow detailed modeling to take place in any one of the African states, as well as in regional institutions such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Each of West Africa's sixteen nations -- Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria and Burkina Faso -- has its own national electricity corporation, with very limited trade between them. The expansion of generation and international transmission is being planned on a case-by-case basis, with no possibility of analyzing the interactions between new projects being considered in various locations.

The Southern region, defined as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has a similar land area to ECOWAS. SADC's population is half as large as ECOWAS,'s but its installed generating capacity in 1992 was four times as large, and energy consumption was eight times larger. While there are significant economic and infrastructural differences between the two regions, the similarities suggest that West Africa could learn a lot from the progress that have been made in Southern Africa in regional cooperation in electricity planning and integration of regional electricity trade.

There are two major differences between the Southern and Western African electricity regions. These are:

It is possible that the West African experience will follow a similar path to that taken in Southern Africa. It was because of the need for detailed quantitative modeling in Southern Africa that financial support was approved for the collaborative work that is taking place between the SAPP and Purdue University. The SADC Secretariat and the twelve government energy departments involved have all welcomed the collaborative modeling work with SAPP and SUFG, and, as mentioned above, SUFG's modeling activities are now institutionalized through the Planning Committee of the SAPP. This example of close institutional cooperation and coordination could be transferable to the West African region, which has structures such as ECOWAS and UEMOA in place that could accommodate the need for governments to work together effectively amongst themselves and in interaction with public utilities, individual private producers and transmitters of electricity.

The present proposal calls for an initial period of work, based around two phases:

PHASE I: Identification and Design of Analysis to Support Regional Electricity Developments in West Africa (July 1999 - March 2000)

The first phase of the activity will undertake four tasks:

Identification of specific issues for analysis and for building a comprehensive regional electricity framework.

In November of 1999, three members of the Purdue SUFG team will visit the region to initiate the activity. This will involve, first, holding discussions with potential participants and stakeholders concerning regional investments and issues related to developing a regional electricity trade. The discussions will focus on specific issues that need to be addressed in the development of regional electricity supplies for greater reliability and lower costs. These may include:

a. Initial and long-term objectives of regional electricity generation and transmission.

• Contracts for trade and reliability.
• Investment coordination and harmonization.
• Joint investments.
• Bulk contract trading.
• Spot trading.

b. The likely participants and configuration of a West African core electricity grid.

c. Policies and electricity regulatory frameworks to be developed.

• Wheeling electricity.
• Investing jointly.
• Redress of grievances.
• 
  
  

d. The institutional options for growth in regional electricity infrastructures.

• The affiliation to governmental and intergovernmental structures.
• Formulae for supporting and criteria of membership for a regional electricity power pool.

Contact will be made with potential participants and stakeholders in the West African electricity sector in the core countries identified as Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Benin, Togo, Nigeria and Burkina Faso. Likely participants will include the electricity utilities, and energy supply companies in these countries. Other national stakeholders whose perspective will be sought will include ministries of energy, electricity regulatory boards and other actors in the energy sector. At an intergovernmental level the energy commissions of ECOWAS and UEMOA will be contacted, as well as any ad hoc organizations that seek regional trade or investment in energy sectors. University scholars (Prof. Iwayemi, University of Ibadan) and private consultants with expertise in these issues will also be identified.

All contacts will be conducted in close coordination with bilateral USAID missions in these countries. These missions will also be approached to obtain their perspective on the issues raised by the activity and on proposed activities under the second phase.

Coordination of activities with other regional energy sector initiatives.

Based upon the field visits in West Africa, the team will develop a draft final proposal for phase two activities. It will visit Washington to bring together officials from USAID's Global Bureau (Energy Office) and Africa Bureau (Sustainable Development Office) together with interested parties in the World Bank to determine if and how to collaborate in further activities to support development of an effective West African electricity grid. Conclusions of these meetings will also be incorporated into the analysis for Phase II.

By mid December 1999, the team will present a report detailing its findings in each of the areas outlined above. The Phase I will proceed with three months of basic electricity and investments modeling. A March 2000 outline model report will conclude Phase I. The Phase I initial modeling of West Africa will be replaced by a broader regional electricity trade and investment analysis if a Phase II is given approval. An appendix of the December report will be a revised design of the second phase of the activity.

Detailed design of Phase II analytical research.

Contacts made during the first phase will also be used to explain the nature and value of the proposed second phase. These discussions will provide an opportunity to identify potential collaborators in a second phase of analysis and to coordinate a workplan for the second phase to assure full participation of important participants. During this trip, recruitment of research collaborators in the region will also be initiated. A first approximation of Phase II is provided below. If the Phase II is approved it should run from January 2000 to December 2000.

Phase II. Building Analytical Tools for A West African Electricity Trade and Expansion Plan (January 2000 - December 2000)

The principal objective of the second phase activities is to develop a broad analytical model that will serve to illustrate the value of a strong and efficient West African electricity market. The model building exercise will also serve to build capacity among probable participants in an expanded regional electricity grid and provide a basis for regional governments and agencies for beginning the institutional development for loose power pooling as well as providing analysis for major investment proposals.

The first requirement for creating this model of the West African electricity sector will be the construction of a comprehensive set of data on current electricity generating capacity (thermal and hydropower) together with the transmission line capabilities. This database-assembly activity will require close collaboration with the engineering leadership of the national utilities, and is a critical first step in establishing the credibility and policy relevance of any subsequent work. The level of complexity of this model will be defined in the December 1999 report.

A second step is to work with national policymakers and energy analysts to characterize proposed and potential generation and transmission expansion projects, in terms of both technical and financial characteristics.

The collaborative links required here are key to generating local ownership of the analytical agenda, so that the simulations of the modeling exercise addresses questions of immediate concern to decision-makers in the region. Once the database characterizing the existing grid and potential changes is assembled, the resulting simulation model can be constructed. Representatives from the region will join in a workshop in the year 2000 to discuss and assess the results from the model. This workshop can be located at Purdue or in the region. This will also be outlined in the December 1999 report.

A first application of the model is to assess the technical and economic benefits of establishing an extensive regional West African electricity trading structure. The maximum savings in capital expenditure saved via regional generation construction quantified benefits from increased regional transmission lines could all be determined, along with the levels of trade within the West Africa region and the degree of interdependence between the states and future formal electricity regional structures.

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1. Sparrow, F.T., and Bowen, B.H., "Modeling Electricity Trade in Southern Africa," Southern African Power Pool meeting and modeling seminar, Windhoek, Namibia, February 12-13, 1997.
   
   
2. Robinson, P.B., Sparrow, F.T., and Gotham, D.J., "Wheeling Charges and Loose Power Pools: North American Experience and its Relevance for the Southern Africa Power Pool," presented at the Sixth Joint Plenary Session of the Southern Africa Power Pool Meetings, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 13, 1997.
   
   
3. Sparrow, F.T., "An Introduction to Dispatch Modeling"; "A More Realistic Single Area Model of Unit Dispatch and Commitment for Thermal Plants"; "Adding Hydro to the Single Area Dispatch/Commitment Problem"; "The Collective Joint commitment/Dispatch Model"; "The Spatial Model, with Power Flow Constraints." Lectures presented at the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)/Purdue University Modeling Workshop, West Lafayette, IN, August 19-September 4, 1997.
   
   
4. Sparrow, F.T., Yu, Zuwei, et al., "A Multi-Regional Electricity Trade Study for Southern African Power Pool," Proceedings of the 60th American Power Conference, V. 60, 1998.
   
   
5. Sparrow, F.T., "Modeling Electricity Trade in Southern Africa," presentations to Southern African Power Pool, energy and water development ministries, electric utilities, and USAID missions in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Zambia, February 20-28, 1998.
   
   
6. Sparrow, F.T., "Modeling Electricity Trade in Southern Africa," presentations to the World Bank and USAIRD, Washington, D.C., April 7-8, 1998.
   
   
7. Sparrow, F.T., "A Multi-regional Electricity Trade Study for Southern African Power Pool," presented at the American Power Conference, Chicago, IL, April 14-16, 1998.
   
   
8. Sparrow, F.T., "The Proposed Long Run Model," Lectures at the Purdue/SAPP Workshop, Cape Town, South Africa, June 29-July 10, 1998.
   
   
9. Sparrow, F.T., and Bowen, B.H., "Modeling Electricity Trade in Southern Africa," presented to the Southern African Power Pool Panning Subcommittee, Mbabane, Swaziland, February 23-25, 1999.
   
   
10. Sparrow, F.T., and Bowen, B.H., "Modeling Electricity Trade in Southern Africa," presentations to Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) Management, Dar-ES-Salaam, Tanzania, August 24-26, 1999.
    
    
11. Bowen, B.H., Sparrow, F.T., and Yu, Z., "Economic Optimum of Electricity Trade Modeling for the Southern African Power Pool," Utilities Policy, Vol. 8, No. 3, September 1999.
    
    
12. Yu, Z., Sparrow, F.T., and Bowen, B.H., "Modeling Long-Term Capacity Expansion Options for the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)," Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference Power and Energy Systems, November 1999.
    
    
13. Sparrow, F.T., "Modeling Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Policies for Africa," presented at the U.S.-Africa Energy Ministerial Conference, U.S. Department of Energy, Tucson, Arizona, December 13-15, 1999.
    
    
14. Yu, Z., Sparrow, F.T., Morin, T., and Nderitu, G., "A Stackelberg Price Leadership Model with Application to Deregulated Electricity Markets," Proceedings of the IEEE PES Winter Meeting, Singapore, January 2000.
    
    
15. Sparrow, F.T., and Bowen, B.H., "Modeling Electricity Trade in Southern Africa," presentations to Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) Management and PSC, Johannesburg, South Africa, February 21-23, 2000.
    
    
16. Electricity grids would energize Africa, investors, Purdue Press Release, March 2000.
    
    
17. Zuwei Yu, F.T. Sparrow, and Brian H. Bowen, "Development of the Southern African Power Pool and the Recent Modeling of Regional Electricity Trade," Transmission and Distribution World, accepted for publication, April 2000.
    
    
18. Siswanto, Nurhadi, "Modeling Capacity Expansion under Uncertainty: A Case Study of the Southern African Power Pool," M.S. Dissertation, May 2000.
    
    
19. Uluca, Basak, "Profit Maximization vs. Welfare Maximization in a Long-Term Electricity Generation Model," M.S. Dissertation, May 2000.
    
    
20. Bowen, B.H., and Sparrow, F.T., "Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) Windows Modeling Workshop," presentation to utilities, members, and management of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP), Cape Technikon, Cape Town, South Africa, July 3-7, 2000.
    
    
21. Yu, Z., Sparrow, F.T., Bowen, B.H., and Smardo, F., "On the Convexity Issues of Hydrothermal Schedule," The International Journal of Electric Power and Energy Systems, August 2000.
    
    
22. Yu, Zuwei, Sparrow, F.T., and Bowen, Brian H., "Development of the Southern African Power Pool and the Recently Modeling of Regional Electricity Trade," Transmission & Distribution World, February 2001, pp. 58-62.
    
    
23. Brian H. Bowen and F.T. Sparrow, "Regional Hydropower Policy and Capacity Expansion Modeling for the Countries of Southern Africa," International Water Power & Dam Construction, February 2001.
    
    
24. Brian H. Bowen and F.T. Saprrow,"Transferring the SAPP Electricity Planning Methodology to SAPP High-level Planners," SAPP Management Committee Meeting, Windhoek, Namibia, February 20-22, 2001.
    
    
25. Bowen, B.H., Sparrow, F.T., and Yu, Z., "Short-Term Electricity Trade Study for the Southern African Power Pool," Journal of Utility Policy, in press.