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State Utility Forecasting Group
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State Utility
Forecasting Group

500 Central Drive
West Lafayette IN 47907-2022
Phone: (765) 494.4223
Fax: (765) 494.6298
sufg@ecn.purdue.edu

Future Activities

Work for the Indiana Regulatory Commission (IURC) Team to include:

SUFG will continue to re-calibrate/replace/retrofit the various components of the traditional forecast modeling system as needed in order to keep the modeling system current.

SUFG will conduct an in-depth assessment of the technical and economic potential of one renewable energy source for inclusion in the 2008 renewable resource report. The in-depth analysis will include evaluation of policy alternatives designed to achieve economic viability of the renewable energy system.

SUFG will continue its efforts to improve its natural gas modeling system.  Specific focus areas will include updating the natural gas database, incorporating local syngas supply, and refining the level of detail in the region surrounding Indiana.

SUFG is in the process of developing a generation portfolio risk management model that determines the appropriate mix of generation to meet load requirements while minimizing the expected cost of electricity with the risk of higher cost due to such factors as price volatility and environmental restrictions.  Further work includes incorporating additional sources of electricity such as wind and different technologies within fuel sources (such as IGCC vs. pulverized coal).

Recent developments in electricity markets have led to a general lowering of utility reserve margins.  SUFG will use loss of load expectation analysis techniques to develop a more refined estimate of the appropriate level of reserves on a statewide basis.