Center for the Environment

Seminar by Dr. Tom Hertel

October 16 @ 3:30 PM - 5:00 PM - Karnnert 661

SEMINAR:  Implications of Climate Extremes for U.S. Corn Price Volatility Under Alternative Economic and Energy Scenarios

Dr. Tom Hertel
Distinguished Professor
Agricultural Economics

OCTOBER 16, 2012
Krannert 661
3:30-5:00 pm

Abstract: The drought of 2012 has raised concerns that climate change could increase food insecuri-ty by altering grain yields in the coming decades. However, commodity price volatility is also influ-enced by other factors, which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to en-ergy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades.

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