Energy Center

South-East Asia

Modeling of Electricity Capacity Expansions in a Regional Framework of the ASEAN Nations and Yunnan Province PRC

SUMMARY

The October 2003 "Bali Concord II" was signed by the ten ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations - Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Loas, Malasia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) which is an ambitious accord for establishing a plan for the removal of trade barriers and the deepening of regional integration. Trade among ASEAN nations amounted to $44 Billion in 1993 and grew to $73 Billion in 1998 representing a 13% annual growth rate. If this trend is to also embrace the energy trade of the region then significant savings are to be made. Demonstration results from the Purdue long-term electricity trade and capacity expansion model indicates savings in excess of $11 Billion dollars over the next 10 years assuming free trade of electricity and full regional cooperation taking place among ASEAN electricity utilities. Regional integration for planning of new generation and strategic international transmission lines is a significant strategy for ASEAN's rapidly expanding economies.

The rationale for this proposed modeling study is to provide a joint optimization of expanding both the transmission and generation expansions across the whole ASEAN region. The Purdue ASEAN optimization will overcome the shortcomings of earlier studies. A significant modeling exercise for an expanded transmission grid has taken place for the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS -Mekong Power Grid Master Plan).

What about regional interconnection for the whole ASEAN region with the inclusion of the most cost effective generation expansions? The Purdue University Energy Modeling Research Groups have undertaken this type of planning for the Midwest U.S. as well as for the 12 nations of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the 14 nations of the West African Power Pool (WAPP).

This proposal outlines the benefits and work involved for an ASEAN wide integrated transmission with generation capacity expansion plan. At the 2003 Bali meeting the Chinese and SEAN delegations endorsed a three year program under the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA). To illustrate the benefits of including China in an ASEAN power pooling structure the proposed model in this document includes the southern Chinese province of Hunnan.

Several major policy issues confront the ASEAN energy planners. These include the future plans for new hydropower stations in the region, the use of natural gas from the regions combined massive reserves of over 256Tcf (167Tcf reserves in the U.S.A., 394Tcf in Qatar) Modeling of Electricity Capacity Expansions in a Regional Framework of the ASEAN Nations and Southern China 3 and the restructuring of the state controlled utilities, and the continuing debate over the environmental impact of the large hydro and thermal units connected to the grid which, while they allow low cost electricity to the region produce highly visible pollution consequences.

In 2003 the governor of Thailand's Electricity Generating Authority (EGAT) stated his country's top three electricity priorities to be (a) privatization, (b) the Salween Hydropower Station in Myanmar, and (c) the regional power grid (involving Thailand, Malasia, Myanmar, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Singapore). These three areas of policy are repeated priorities for most ASEAN member states.

Based on regional data already available and the initial modeling already conducted it now proposed that an extensive ASIAN and Yunnan regional expansion modeling study be conducted. This will demonstrate the benefits from greater regional cooperation and show the most cost effective (cost minimizing) expansion projects for investment.

DOCUMENTS

Proposal

Sparrow, F.T., Yu, Z., Yu, L., Siriariyaporn, V., and Bowen, B.H., "Modeling of Electricity Capacity Expansions in a Regional Framework of the ASEAN Nations and Yunnan Province PRC," Draft, September 13, 2004.
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Publications

Yu, Z, Bowen, B.H., Sparrow, F.T., Siriariyaporn, V., and Yu, L., "Integrated Energy Resources Planning for the ASEAN Countries and Southern China," Oil, Gas & Energy Law Intelligence, Vol. 3, Issue 4, December 2005.
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Contact

Dr. Paul Preckel
Potter Engineering Center
500 Central Drive
West Lafayette IN 47907-2022 USA

Phone: 765.494.4240
Email: preckel@purdue.edu