Weather Extremes
Explores the possible responses of local- and regional-scale weather phenomena to enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations.
- What are the physical mechanisms and statistical characteristics of observed changes in extreme weather events?
- To what extent does climate change translate into a greater risk of damage from tropical cyclones for the U.S.?
- How will climate change affect the Asian summer monsoon?
- How will climate change affect the frequency and intensity of thunderstorms and associated phenomena such as hail, damaging winds, tornados, and heavy rainfall?
- What will be the societal, economic, ecological, and human-health impacts of the projected weather extremes?
The economic and social costs of extreme weather events are often dramatic and are likely to increase in future climates. Improved information will produce better climate projections and weather forecasts, decrease our vulnerability to extreme events, and allow us to devise strategies to adapt to climate changes.
"Sub-daily scale extreme precipitation in future climate-change scenarios" Jeff Trapp, (Funding from the NSF)
A consistent result in global climate model projections of future climate change is that the frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase, particularly over North America. Not yet established, however, is whether the projected extreme precipitation will be manifested as locally intense rainfall and flash flooding over several-hour periods.
"Modeling Coherent Structures in Convective Boundary Layers," Alexander Gluhovsky and Ernest Agee (NSF)
Intersest in the organized part of turbulent flows has increased considerably over the last thirty years. This is particularly true in atmospheric convective boundary layers, where observed fields of coherent structures (CSs) are seen to evolve from a background of microscale turbulent fluctuations.